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So, who's watching the presidential debates tomorrow? Grab yer popcorn

#91 User is offline   Graham 

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Posted 15 October 2016 - 02:31 AM

View PostExophase, on 14 October 2016 - 06:19 PM, said:

Okay, but.. were these people really not already voting for him?

He has taken some pretty real damage in the polls this last month, finally breaking down the appearance that he's invulnerable. And at this stage in the game it's really hard to recover as much as he would need to. His previous rebounds were not that statistically unlikely but a rebound now would be, at least based on historical campaign data.


I'm worried the media might be trying to make it look more damaging to him than it really is. They of course don't want him to succeed either. The polls seem to frequently be wrong about him. Historical campaign data doesn't appear to apply to him either. I hope this is the end of this buffoons ride but if it's not, man, we're in for some tough times ahead. I'm probably overly worried though.
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#92 User is offline   Dr Lancer-X 

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Posted 15 October 2016 - 03:06 AM

He's not impervious to scandal, it's just that he's always had an answer up until now. I also think the polls being wrong previously about Trump is more due to the pollsters not adjusting for the correct 'likely to vote' demographic. I think they've since adjusted for the enthusiasm gap between Trump and Hillary and are reporting somewhat more accurately now. Naturally anyone who thinks Trump is out of the running is hilariously naive, but I think things look good for Hillary.
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#93 User is offline   Exophase 

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Posted 15 October 2016 - 06:00 AM

View PostGraham, on 14 October 2016 - 10:31 PM, said:

I'm worried the media might be trying to make it look more damaging to him than it really is. They of course don't want him to succeed either. The polls seem to frequently be wrong about him. Historical campaign data doesn't appear to apply to him either. I hope this is the end of this buffoons ride but if it's not, man, we're in for some tough times ahead. I'm probably overly worried though.


I'm just going by the polls here. I don't even bother reading much of what the media has to say on the election anymore.
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#94 User is offline   Verasev 

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Posted 16 October 2016 - 12:37 AM

Man, jeez lancer, who are the social justice types supposed to vote for that won't compromise their principles? Mrs. Anti-Vaxxer Jill Stein? There are no good choices!
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Posted 16 October 2016 - 12:45 AM

And I think we're in for tough times regardless. That Trump got this far has emboldened a lot of voices that weren't nearly as close to the mainstream as they are now. Nationalists, outright racists, conspiracy theorists, even a tiny handful of Exophase's half sincere anti 19th amendment misogynists. If Trump loses they are gonna be mad as hell about it and I don't think that, given how loud and crass their overlord is, they are just gonna sit and sulk about it. We may even see some violence over this.

This post has been edited by Verasev: 16 October 2016 - 12:48 AM

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#96 User is offline   Exophase 

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Posted 16 October 2016 - 05:12 AM

View PostVerasev, on 15 October 2016 - 08:37 PM, said:

Man, jeez lancer, who are the social justice types supposed to vote for that won't compromise their principles? Mrs. Anti-Vaxxer Jill Stein? There are no good choices!


Rather than say that Jill Stein has been pretty clear that she's not anti-vax, I'll just point out that both Hillary and Obama made statements cautiously warning of the possible connection between vaccination and autism back in 2008. Now there was probably more excuse to not know for sure back then (as well as on climate change) but being behind on the data isn't the worst thing someone could be. That goes for some of Terryn's previous criticisms as well, although I won't pretend she's perfect.

But really if you need to dig deeper there are probably even more than just the most major four people on most ballots (as well as write in options). But this is a moot point and everyone knows it. In this electoral system and party climate it's not fair to criticize people for the shortcomings of whoever they're voting for. While there is IMO some strategic value sometimes in voting for a sure loser, most people won't ever do that. In which case there are simply disqualifying criteria, no matter how bad someone is the other person simply has to be worse, or represent some kind of bigger platform-based or ideological threat.

I hear crazy things like how Trump's female supporters are all just pretending so their husbands won't beat them, and will actually vote Hillary. Because it's not possible that a woman would support a man that doesn't respect women. But it is possible, if the alternative is worse in their minds.

Besides, even if maybe Hillary Clinton isn't the model feminist I disagree that she's not really the "SocJus" pick, and just picking a woman to begin with is a pretty big feminist value these days.

View PostVerasev, on 15 October 2016 - 08:45 PM, said:

And I think we're in for tough times regardless. That Trump got this far has emboldened a lot of voices that weren't nearly as close to the mainstream as they are now. Nationalists, outright racists, conspiracy theorists, even a tiny handful of Exophase's half sincere anti 19th amendment misogynists. If Trump loses they are gonna be mad as hell about it and I don't think that, given how loud and crass their overlord is, they are just gonna sit and sulk about it. We may even see some violence over this.


Did you really have to call those people mine? :(

I don't see any signs that any kind of violence will occur. IF there are really an appreciable number of white nationalists and racists backing Trump (I have my doubts that it's anything to the extent that the media and Hillary's campaign claims) they're sure to go back to the dark corners they inhabited before Trump.

Everywhere I look someone's talking about the ways in which everything's going to go to shit soon. Things do occasionally go to shit but the nature of it is rarely very predictable.
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#97 User is offline   Dr Lancer-X 

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Posted 16 October 2016 - 10:13 AM

View PostVerasev, on 16 October 2016 - 10:37 AM, said:

Man, jeez lancer, who are the social justice types supposed to vote for that won't compromise their principles? Mrs. Anti-Vaxxer Jill Stein? There are no good choices!

vaccination isn't a social justice issue, it's a health issue (and sometimes an individual liberties issue, although not a popular one. thanks to the issue of herd immunity it's easy to claim that my rights to not get sick overwhelm your rights to avoid a jab in the arm). and besides, she's not really anti-vax, it's just shitty media people saying she is because she tends to snipe at Hillary a lot. same people that make up completely bogus stuff about Trump, it's because the truth is viewed as an acceptable casualty if that's what it takes to get Hillary into the White House.

anyway, I'm actually not saying 'don't vote for Hillary'. i know how american voting works and the gist of it is that a vote for Jill Stein is a vote thrown away. i'm more referring to the softball treatment Hillary's been getting from people who are normally all about how pure your track record is.

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IF there are really an appreciable number of white nationalists and racists backing Trump (I have my doubts that it's anything to the extent that the media and Hillary's campaign claims)


i think this kind of estimation error exists because there are certain people who do exist, but because it's hard for the human brain to instinctively grasp social groups larger than about 100 people, when you have a sample of a bunch of people on a message board saying white nationalist things and supporting Trump you tend to feel that you're looking at the tip of a much larger iceberg. it's like flat earthers, they absolutely exist, but there probably aren't millions of them, even though there are entire online communities built up around these people. plus, of course, there's /pol/. i think that, on some level, people understand that there is a mindset that wants to say racist things precisely because it offends people and because offending people is very funny. it's not like these people are racist in their day to day interactions with the world - i mean, it's generally not socially acceptable to be racist now, but i would compare to, say, someone who won't decorate a gay wedding cake. that person is actually homophobic, like actual, homophobic in Real Life homophobic. a /pol/itician working in a patisserie would decorate the gay cake, then during his lunch break say that america needs to be cleansed of degenerates. (okay, maybe he's just gutless when he's not in front of a computer screen - but i think it's also because refusing service in this case wouldn't be all that funny. it would be funny to, say, draw a swastika on the cake or something. i don't know. not that he'd do that either, because that puts his job at risk and that means no more tendies)

also, this error is useful to hillary's campaign because it suggests that trump's supporters are racists, sexists and misogynists, and these are negative words that are good to attach to your opponent. remember the hilarious slapfight over the kkk previously, with david duke endorsing trump, the california kkk donating $20k to clinton, the robert byrd thing etc.? nobody was making a claim that either side was promoting policies that the kkk found pleasing, it was just an exercise in trying to tie reviled people to a political opponent.
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#98 User is offline   Verasev 

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Posted 16 October 2016 - 03:18 PM

There's actual data to back up Trump's campaign being tied/fueled by white nationalism and racial resentment. It's not just me.

https://www.washingt...ity-sentiments/

http://www.pewresear...ants-diversity/

Some of it is just mudslinging to tie undesirables to the Trump campaign but I don't think that all or even most of it is. I take back my statement about Jill Stein however. I was wrong.

Edit: Oh, and this happened. http://www.aljazeera...5040527801.html

You may draw your own conclusions as to how connected it is to anti Muslim rhetoric spoken during this presidential campaign.

This post has been edited by Verasev: 16 October 2016 - 04:09 PM

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#99 User is offline   Exophase 

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Posted 16 October 2016 - 06:50 PM

View PostVerasev, on 16 October 2016 - 11:18 AM, said:

There's actual data to back up Trump's campaign being tied/fueled by white nationalism and racial resentment. It's not just me.

https://www.washingt...ity-sentiments/

http://www.pewresear...ants-diversity/

Some of it is just mudslinging to tie undesirables to the Trump campaign but I don't think that all or even most of it is. I take back my statement about Jill Stein however. I was wrong.

Edit: Oh, and this happened. http://www.aljazeera...5040527801.html

You may draw your own conclusions as to how connected it is to anti Muslim rhetoric spoken during this presidential campaign.


I really don't see how any of this demonstrates that eg, 15% of voters are white nationalists, a claim casually accepted by 538 http://fivethirtyeig...ty-falls-apart/ And they're normally on the more objective end of the spectrum.

I also don't think you can properly correlate all anti-immigration and even anti-Muslim immigration sentiments in particular to white nationalism. Opposition to illegal immigration was pretty mainstream in both parties not even 20 years ago, it's only been pretty recent that the Democratic party seems to want to embrace it. This, or being paranoid over Muslims, is not by itself a definitive statement that you want America to be entirely white or have a "white identity" or whatever white nationalism actually is. Of course Trump is going to be the most popular among actual white nationalists and white supremacists and people who are generally anti-minority (not going to use "racists" here because it doesn't really encompass the racists who aren't white), but that still doesn't mean that they're this massive plurality in American politics today.
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#100 User is offline   Verasev 

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Posted 16 October 2016 - 10:03 PM

In other news, Redolph Gulliani is already hinting that the election is going to be rigged by the democrats due to their "control over the inner cities."

http://www.vox.com/2...-election-fraud

Edit: oh, shit. http://www.vox.com/2...epublican-party

This post has been edited by Verasev: 17 October 2016 - 12:05 AM

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#101 User is offline   Exophase 

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Posted 17 October 2016 - 12:49 AM

Election fraud could maybe be a factor in a very, very close election. A lot of left-leaning people did complain about fraud after 2000 (and with some decent arguments), so it's not really a strictly right-wing thing.

But I don't think this will be a super close election despite recent appearances, and most of the states with big cities - particularly the ones with the cities Guilliani was referring to - are not that close. The people who insist that the election was rigged against them are also not going to care at all what a rag like Vox has to say about it.

Not that Trump doesn't look ridiculous complaining about the results of an election that hasn't even happened yet, but that's par for the course Trump idiocy. Guilliani probably wouldn't have said anything if he wasn't prompted to defend Trump.
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#102 User is offline   Dr Lancer-X 

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Posted 17 October 2016 - 01:40 AM

There's also a substantial body of evidence pointing to irregularities in the DNC primary process. The difference being that the Democratic primaries are run by the DNC which was always in Hillary's camp, so it's probably not hard to do in that case, particularly in cases where no paper trail exists.

It's reasonable to assume there will be some election fraud, but it's very hard to see it making a difference in this election.
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#103 User is offline   Exophase 

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Posted 17 October 2016 - 06:50 AM

As far as I see it the primaries are such skewed systems that it's hard to see where the legitimacy ends and the rigging begins. I hate how it's all excused under the justification that they're private entities, because they have a tremendous amount of governmental control de facto. But maybe we need to tear away their veneer of democracy to get Americans to agree to a better system.

Unfortunately, the whole thing is a massive catch 22; better systems can't be achieved via constitutional reform or state legislature if they advantage either party even slightly. It just won't happen.
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#104 User is offline   Verasev 

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Posted 18 October 2016 - 12:34 AM

In other other news Ecuador gave Assange the boot.

https://mobile.twitt...099178832420865

Supposedly he has a deadman's switch set to release everything if he doesn't get internet access back soon enough. Who knows what that may mean for the election.

This post has been edited by Verasev: 18 October 2016 - 12:36 AM

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Posted 18 October 2016 - 01:17 AM

They haven't given him the boot, but they have cut off his Internet.
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#106 User is offline   Verasev 

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Posted 18 October 2016 - 08:56 PM

??? Now, why would they do that?
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Posted 18 October 2016 - 09:51 PM

John Kerry and the State department, apparently.

It's the dumbest thing I've ever heard of. They don't really think Julian Assange is personally uploading the leaks, stored on his laptop in the Ecuadorian embassy, right? But going by this, clearly they do believe that...

Plus it's hard to say that Assange isn't personally being targeted and censored when you go and do something like this. It's also hard to say that the US Government isn't conspiring to assist Hillary Clinton's election campaign when they are literally using the State department to protect her and her alone. (They're not exactly going after the person that leaked the Trump tape, are they?)



Anyway, Trump's brought out the big guns. A 5 point plan to reform lobbying laws and eliminate 'revolving door'-style lobbyists and a pledge to impose term limits on members of Congress via a constitutional amendment. This is pretty big stuff and the former at least will be very hard for Hillary to match. Will it be enough to turn things around for Trump? Maybe.
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#108 User is offline   Verasev 

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Posted 19 October 2016 - 12:06 AM

Haha, maybe this is some spy versus spy shit where Assange convinced the Ecuadorians to revoke his internet access to 1: make the state department look wildly incompetent and 2: give him an excuse to release everything all at once with this deadman's switch thing. He doesn't even have to release everything all at once, just say that he did and, gosh, it's just a coincidence that most of it makes the US and, more specifically, the current administration and the Democrats in general look bad. And then maybe he fakes his own death to imply the current or future administration had him assassinated.

And then again, maybe I should check my meds (if you can't have fun with a soul crushingly humiliating mental illness that renders you unemployable for the past year what can you have fun with (I need a fucking job)).

Edit: I hope I hope I hope that Hillary will match him on both in spite of the odds on the lobbyist one.

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Posted 19 October 2016 - 12:10 AM

Well, I trust Wikileaks, but the only reason I'm not entirely convinced that this is accurate is because it is so stupid, beyond anything I honestly believe the State Department is capable of. Assange is (relatively) unimportant. He should be ignored and efforts should focus on mitigating damage, not trying to worsen it.

Quote

Edit: I hope I hope I hope that Hillary will match him on both in spite of the odds on the lobbyist one.


Oh, absolutely. And I think it would be tactically a good choice, even if it makes some of her donors unhappy; I think from her perspective winning the election is more important.
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#110 User is offline   Exophase 

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Posted 19 October 2016 - 02:37 AM

View PostDr Lancer-X, on 18 October 2016 - 05:51 PM, said:

Anyway, Trump's brought out the big guns. A 5 point plan to reform lobbying laws and eliminate 'revolving door'-style lobbyists and a pledge to impose term limits on members of Congress via a constitutional amendment. This is pretty big stuff and the former at least will be very hard for Hillary to match. Will it be enough to turn things around for Trump? Maybe.


Congressional term limits, which are supported by a majority of Americans, came to vote and even went through the supreme court a couple decades ago. It got a simple majority, but nowhere close to the astronomical two-thirds needed to pass a conventional amendment. Congress is a lot more polarized today than it was then, I have a bad feeling that it'll be blocked by whatever party it produces even a slightly worse short term forecast for.

Still, WHY could Trump not put this out there a year ago. It's like he saved this for the last minute in hopes that the Clinton campaign would be too lumbering to match it in time.
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Posted 19 October 2016 - 04:59 AM

View PostExophase, on 19 October 2016 - 12:37 PM, said:

Still, WHY could Trump not put this out there a year ago. It's like he saved this for the last minute in hopes that the Clinton campaign would be too lumbering to match it in time.


I would say 'bingo'. He's already long since established his bona fides with traditional conservatives and they aren't likely to go for Hillary in force. Now he can throw in policies that will appeal to the sort of people that supported Bernie Sanders and it will be somewhat difficult for Hillary to respond (exceptionally difficult to respond while saying on message with the "Trump is a rapist" shtick)

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Congressional term limits, which are supported by a majority of Americans, came to vote and even went through the supreme court a couple decades ago. It got a simple majority, but nowhere close to the astronomical two-thirds needed to pass a conventional amendment. Congress is a lot more polarized today than it was then, I have a bad feeling that it'll be blocked by whatever party it produces even a slightly worse short term forecast for.


There's no need for there to be a realistic chance of either of these policies actually being implemented. Just saying you want to do them is enough in a Presidential election, because the President has no power to do these things anyway; the President can just say they'd like it to happen and maybe Congress will follow, maybe it won't.
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Posted 20 October 2016 - 01:23 AM

Thanks BuzzFeed: https://www.facebook...55217118800329/
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Posted 20 October 2016 - 01:30 AM

Hillary spending more time reading something than paying attention to the debate. Reminds me of Obama in the first 2012 debate. I really have to wonder what's so important... maybe she's decided she's going to win no matter what and has mentally checked out.

EDIT: Trying the Rubio approach I see. Maybe it will work better for her than it did for him.

EDIT 2: holy shit hillary wants to nuke russia
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Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:25 AM

holy shit what is trump even saying it's like absurdist language without meaning
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Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:26 AM

i had to go to lunch and missed whatever it was. oh well, i'll watch the whole thing afterwards.

EDIT: "such a nasty woman" あらら
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Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:35 AM

I was about to quote that, "What a nasty woman" OMG OMG OMG AAAAAAAAAAAAUGH
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Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:40 AM

Anyway, I thought they were both pretty solid at first.. and then both of them degenerated as the debate went on. I wonder if Trump's thrown away some of the good fortune he's accrued over the past number of days. Guess we'll see.
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Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:41 AM

I liked Clinton's exit. Shake, confident walk, show off that white suit, smile, wave, and walk down to talk to people. Trump just stood around awkwardly and waited for his family to come surround him.

EDIT: Yeah, it got pretty general and interrupt-ee and heated toward the end. Ironically, the more choppy it got, the more interesting it became

This post has been edited by Bramble: 20 October 2016 - 02:42 AM

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#119 User is offline   Dr Lancer-X 

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Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:46 AM

View PostBramble, on 20 October 2016 - 12:41 PM, said:

EDIT: Yeah, it got pretty general and interrupt-ee and heated toward the end. Ironically, the more choppy it got, the more interesting it became

Well, we see the preprepared remarks run out and the candidates start revealing their true selves, I suppose.

Also: Obama weighs in. Kind of late, but I chuckled.
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#120 User is offline   Exophase 

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Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:47 AM

I didn't see most of it this time. Does anyone have a list of what new things they covered, if anything? The last 30 minutes was a bunch of retreads.
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