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A Comet or Asteroid collision... What would we really do? #2

#1 User is offline   ZzCrook 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 05:05 AM

An asteroid around two-thirds of a mile wide could hit the earth on March 21, 2014 and has been classified as "an event meriting careful monitoring" by astronomers. The asteroid is around one tenth of the size of the meteor that is believed to have wiped out dinosaurs on Earth 65 million years ago. In the unlikely event of it hitting the Earth, the rock would have the force of 350,000 mega tonnes - around eight million times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The giant rock was first observed on August 24 by Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Program, based in Socorro, New Mexico. Asteroids such as 2003 QQ47 are chunks of rock left over from the formation of our solar system 4.5 billion years ago.

Dozens of asteroids and comets such as 2003 QQ47 (mentioned above) come within frighteningly close distances to Earth every year. Each of which has the ability to destroy a large percentage of life on this planet. Although 2003 QQ47 is no longer a threat (calculations prove it will come close - but not impact), it was the only threatening space object in history to be given a 1 on the Torino scale, which is maximum. The Torino scale measures the threat and possibility of an impact by an object. Until 2003 QQ47, all other objects were listed as 0 on the scale, which means "Requires Low to Medium monitoring". All other objects that do not pose a threat are not listed in the Torino scale.

In the late 20th Century, films such as "Deep Impact" and "Armageddon" made the public aware of such threats. In one of these films they mention the United States government only tracks 3% of the sky with their current budget. Of course, today NASA's SENTRY program has improved apon these statistics significantly.

The object that killed off the dinosaurs may have been a lump of iron the size of a mountain traveling at about 30 miles per second. Enormous quantities of heat are generated which vaporize most of the impacting object and a similar amount of the Earth. The effect of this is similar to a nuclear explosion, but much larger, with a hole punched right through the crust and a crater a 100 miles across. The fireball will burn everything for huge distances, blastwaves in the atmosphere and ground waves through the earth will go round the Earth several times. If you survive the first ones you will hear and feel the impact several times as it reverberates around the planet. The secondary effects will be tidal waves, freak winds, the sky darkened by dust, and heavy rain (if some of the sea was vaporized). The atmosphere may become close to unbreathable in some cases due to dust and volcanic gases - and the weather may be very cold for many years. Another big killer, that I have only recently become aware of, is the sky becoming red hot due to millions of tons of material ejected by the impact explosion falling back to earth from space. Needless to say, it would be Hell.

The most massive object known to have hit the Earth was the size of the planet Mars. We know it happened because after the impact some material splashed out to form a blob orbiting the Earth - and we now call it the Moon. This happened soon after the Earth first formed and must have completely liquified the Earth and made it somewhat larger. No one would survive an impact like that; but there are reasons to think that most of these very serious impacts happened soon after the planets first formed. The orbits of all the very large objects orbiting the Sun seem to have been stable now for 100s of millions of years and we can hope they will stay that way.

In the movies Armageddon and Deep Impact, the world's governments build spaceships and sent teams of cosmonauts and astronauts to the surface of these objects to plant a nuclear weapon and destroy it.

Most of us know, we are not capable of doing this. In Armageddon, they had 18 days (which is absurd, you couldn't plan a shuttle launch in that time, let alone travel around the moon and onto an asteroid). In Deep Impact they did it in just over a year, which would've been feasable if crews worked 24/7 (which they probably would) and if everything went perfectly to plan, with no mistakes.

In today's society, it would be near impossible to sent a team to the surface of a comet or asteroid, simply because of the risks involved, as well as the time frame. If NASA were to attempt this, it would take approximately 4-5 years to plan, prepare, and send a crew into space. NASA doesn't have any Saturn V rockets anymore, so going beyond high-Earth orbit is out of the question. Which means we cannot even go to the moon anymore. I guess you could say, the space program has de-evolved since the 1970's.

Keeping this in mind, if an asteroid or comet were on a collision course with Earth, there is a very slim chance of us having the time or posessing the technology to prevent it. This being the case, we'd be out of luck.

What would you do if you woke up tomorrow morning and saw on the news an asteroid was discovered, and was expected to impact Earth within a year? As with the alien invasion topic, there'd be a breakdown in social and civil services, looting, rioting, etc.

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#2 User is offline   Raistlin19 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 06:47 AM

I just wrote an SA explaining this answer but it couldn't post :cry: . My over all summry however: Load of Bull.
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#3 User is offline   Dr Lancer-X 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 07:15 AM

Unfortunately, it'll probably miss us. Here's hoping, though.

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#4 User is offline   Xeirxes 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 08:18 AM

Well, I would probably cry and think of all of the things in life I'd miss. But I would get ready with my shotgun and prepare to SHOOT THAT ASTEROID... just kidding. I'd probably just go wherever my family went. Then we could all die together.
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#5 User is offline   deadmanwalking777 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 03:50 PM

Yeah, I read something about this in scientific america (or some sort of science magizine of some sort) It was on all the things we'd do to defend ourselves of this asteroid (using theorized technology that these scientists have thought of).

let me just try and find it...

nope. got nothin, but I do have a few links on the matter

My Webpage

[URL=http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/09/02/1062403508395.html[/URL]
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#6 User is offline   Pyro1588 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 05:43 PM

eh, nothing much, except maybe run off to the mission field for the last year. i mean, what have i got to lose? i've got hope of life after death, but let's not get started on another religion war.

YAY! 800 posts!
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<pyro1588> "welcome to australia, can i help you find what you're looking for?"
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#7 User is offline   axii 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 06:30 PM

hm....first I would wonder why I was watching the news, then I would have breakfast and maybe begin a riot.
<Es> "What are you listening to?" "Oh, you know. I'm pretty heavy into caverntronica."
<Fungahhh> for now on i'm going to list caverntronica as a music genre i listen to.
<Fungahhh> it can be the new underground thing!
<Es> We will get it into the vocabulary of hipsters!
<Es> And then we will CALL THEM ON IT WHEN THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT IT IS
<Fungahhh> i'm submitting that to urbandictionary <3
<Es> <3
<axii> they will hunt you down
<axii> and eat your legs
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#8 User is offline   weasel 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 07:03 PM

Looting. I'd probably finally get that PS2 that I've been wanting.
Blaugh!
Serious damage to important body parts pretty much ruins any plans you had for living. Bummer.
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#9 User is offline   deadmanwalking777 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 07:09 PM

oops. fotgot to post what I'd do

I'd probably commit all the crimes I've wanted to commit. I mean I could Loot a car, murder this jackass at school, do whatever I want without all the legal shnanagans!

Also. On a more personal note. I'd go to my grandparents house.... AND WATCH T.V!!! HAHAHAHAHALOLOLOWTFWOOTROFFLEROFFLEROFFLE

heh. Actually I'd be happy with just the first part.
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#10 User is offline   Micah 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 07:11 PM

It's something to think about, but I wouldn't worry about it too much unless someone from one of those organizations gave us a warning first.
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#11 User is offline   Sai'ke 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 07:14 PM

One year?

Drugs & Parties!
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#12 User is offline   Thunderdog 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 07:18 PM

If a huge asteroid were to hit Earth, yes, Looting is the way to go. Then, I'll finally be able to do everything I've always wanted to.
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#13 User is offline   Raistlin19 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 07:55 PM

I'll pretend this is going to happen (PFFT! yeah right!). Id'e build a bomb shelter lined with titanium. I'de hord cookies and ice cream and i'de build a solar powered dish that way by the time it hit ide have enough power saved 2 last forever.(The comet will help because the closer it gets the more light we'll recieve from it) I'de be sitting pretty. Then Ide post about it here wi'll you guys all burn!!!

This post has been edited by Raistlin19: 22 December 2003 - 07:56 PM

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#14 User is offline   axii 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 09:22 PM

thanks
<Es> "What are you listening to?" "Oh, you know. I'm pretty heavy into caverntronica."
<Fungahhh> for now on i'm going to list caverntronica as a music genre i listen to.
<Fungahhh> it can be the new underground thing!
<Es> We will get it into the vocabulary of hipsters!
<Es> And then we will CALL THEM ON IT WHEN THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT IT IS
<Fungahhh> i'm submitting that to urbandictionary <3
<Es> <3
<axii> they will hunt you down
<axii> and eat your legs
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#15 User is offline   Pyro1588 

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 09:32 PM

weasel and thunderdog: what good will a PS2 do you if we're all gunna die?
raistlin: we're all gunna die anyway. what's the point?
<Tox> bah. I may as well give in and shop australia. D:
<pyro1588> "welcome to australia, can i help you find what you're looking for?"
<Tox> pyro1588, I'm giving you the most reproachful of glares right now.
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Go show those nutty Koreans what us crazy Europeans are made of pirate.gif pirate.gif pirate.gif - Saike
<exophase> The old Commodore strategy of, "Go friggin' bankrupt!"
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#16 User is offline   Xeirxes 

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 12:27 AM

No looting for me. Even if the government laws crumble, my own moral laws wouldn't.
Xeirxes

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#17 User is offline   Thunderdog 

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 02:18 AM

Pyro1588, on Dec 22 2003, 05:32 PM, said:

weasel and thunderdog: what good will a PS2 do you if we're all gunna die?

Just use the PS2 for the duration that you're alive.
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#18 User is offline   Pyro1588 

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 03:16 AM

xerxes: good point. many people do have morals.

thunderdog: you're gunna die anyway.
<Tox> bah. I may as well give in and shop australia. D:
<pyro1588> "welcome to australia, can i help you find what you're looking for?"
<Tox> pyro1588, I'm giving you the most reproachful of glares right now.
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Go show those nutty Koreans what us crazy Europeans are made of pirate.gif pirate.gif pirate.gif - Saike
<exophase> The old Commodore strategy of, "Go friggin' bankrupt!"
<wervyn> Go away! I'm writing the same engine I always do!
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#19 User is offline   axii 

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 09:29 PM

thunderdog, on Dec 23 2003, 02:18 AM, said:

Just use the PS2 for the duration that you're alive.

wow, you really want to waste you last year in front of a ps2? dude, there's better ways to die. So why don't you have a ps2? I sold drugs to get mine (just kidding) where do you live?
<Es> "What are you listening to?" "Oh, you know. I'm pretty heavy into caverntronica."
<Fungahhh> for now on i'm going to list caverntronica as a music genre i listen to.
<Fungahhh> it can be the new underground thing!
<Es> We will get it into the vocabulary of hipsters!
<Es> And then we will CALL THEM ON IT WHEN THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT IT IS
<Fungahhh> i'm submitting that to urbandictionary <3
<Es> <3
<axii> they will hunt you down
<axii> and eat your legs
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#20 User is offline   Sai'ke 

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Posted 24 December 2003 - 12:21 AM

Raistlin19, on Dec 22 2003, 07:55 PM, said:

I'll pretend this is going to happen (PFFT! yeah right!). Id'e build a bomb shelter lined with titanium. I'de hord cookies and ice cream and i'de build a solar powered dish that way by the time it hit ide have enough power saved 2 last forever.(The comet will help because the closer it gets the more light we'll recieve from it) I'de be sitting pretty. Then Ide post about it here wi'll you guys all burn!!!

Uhhh, Raistlin, there won't be any breathable air. Most probably the earth will heat up like hell and there'd be a lot of poisonous gasses in the atmosphere.
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#21 User is offline   Pyro1588 

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Posted 24 December 2003 - 01:07 AM

but he'll have lots of ice cream, so it won't matter.
<Tox> bah. I may as well give in and shop australia. D:
<pyro1588> "welcome to australia, can i help you find what you're looking for?"
<Tox> pyro1588, I'm giving you the most reproachful of glares right now.
--------
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#22 User is offline   Goshi 

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Posted 24 December 2003 - 05:33 AM

<Starts picturing reploids with ice cream>

Everyone will go crazy. Everyone will be screaming we're all going to die.
No point looting, you'll just lose all that stuff in the end.
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#23 User is offline   Thunderdog 

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Posted 24 December 2003 - 05:39 AM

Sure, you'll lose it, but You might as well use it while you can. Unless it's jewelry, or something.
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#24 User is offline   Svartmetall 

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Posted 24 December 2003 - 08:52 AM

Sai'ke, on Dec 24 2003, 12:21 AM, said:

Raistlin19, on Dec 22 2003, 07:55 PM, said:

I'll pretend this is going to happen (PFFT! yeah right!). Id'e build a bomb shelter lined with titanium. I'de hord cookies and ice cream and i'de build a solar powered dish that way by the time it hit ide have enough power saved 2 last forever.(The comet will help because the closer it gets the more light we'll recieve from it) I'de be sitting pretty. Then Ide post about it here wi'll you guys all burn!!!

Uhhh, Raistlin, there won't be any breathable air. Most probably the earth will heat up like hell and there'd be a lot of poisonous gasses in the atmosphere.

I think you'd find that the temperature would drop dramatically rather than increase (at least at first). When a large comet/meteor hits the earth, the dust and soot generated by the impact causes dramatic loss of heat. Even smaller comets/meteors cause minor drops in temperature.

A meteor that is 2km across causes, on average, a predicted drop of 8 degrees C globally, whereas with a 10km meteor you'd get freezing conditions worldwide.

Eventually though, as you say, depending upon the size of the meteor/comet there is a greenhouse effect, however, this only occurs (or at least a very noticable difference) after an impact comets/meteors larger than 5km across. For there to be any severe temperature rise the meteor/comet would have to be 10km or larger! The largest risk here is the release of methane deposits from the ocean which could indeed lead to a very potent greenhouse layer being formed, however, this is unlikely.

One of the biggest "long term" problems after the impact is the release of free radicals generated by the intense heat of the impact. These radicals would cause severe ozone depletion.

All in all, I'm a bit skeptical about the risk from meteors/asteroids/comets etc. If there is an impact of any note though, we'll all suffer, no matter what precautions we take the long term effects will cause great problems for us all, not to mention the initial death toll of course!
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#25 User is offline   Sai'ke 

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Posted 24 December 2003 - 03:29 PM

Svartmetall, on Dec 24 2003, 08:52 AM, said:

BIG QUOTE

Well ...

About the whole theory with the radicals:

Covalent bonds 'break' when you put enough energy into the molecule. This is what'd happen according to you. So, the meteor strikes thus releasing thermal energy which is taken in by the molecules on earth. My question is: Why would these radicals affect the whole ozone layer when they could just as well react with one and other to lower their energy level (substances all try to go to their lowest energetic form). It doesn't seem like the ozone layer would be depleted that significantly since the radicals only affect a fairly local area (radicals never get very far without being bonded).

About the heating/cooling thing ... Doesn't the removal of plantlife remove a vital inhibitory buffer of the greenhouse effect? I don't expect trees 'n stuff to survive a meteor crash.

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#26 User is offline   Xeirxes 

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Posted 24 December 2003 - 10:38 PM

I think the temperature would drop dramatically. Clouds of dust and stuff would cover the earth and cause less sunlight, therefore making us freeze. The rock and powder in the air would probably cause alot of sicknesses. If it went right, you could maybe get on a high mountain and still recieve sunlight, but even then you could freeze to death because of the height and the loss of air insulation around you. As well as this, if the impact was powerful enough, the earth would be thrown out of it's original orbit and suffer losses to natural movement--it could hit an open orbit and we would die of no sunlight, or it would hit too close and we would superheat near the sun and die. It really is amazing how the earth is kept on such a perfect orbit around the sun.
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#27 User is offline   Pyro1588 

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Posted 24 December 2003 - 11:57 PM

what a sad, depressing thread. i feel like killing myself just because this is a possibility.
<Tox> bah. I may as well give in and shop australia. D:
<pyro1588> "welcome to australia, can i help you find what you're looking for?"
<Tox> pyro1588, I'm giving you the most reproachful of glares right now.
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Go show those nutty Koreans what us crazy Europeans are made of pirate.gif pirate.gif pirate.gif - Saike
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<wervyn> Go away! I'm writing the same engine I always do!
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#28 User is offline   Svartmetall 

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Posted 25 December 2003 - 12:23 AM

Sai'ke, on Dec 24 2003, 03:29 PM, said:

Svartmetall, on Dec 24 2003, 08:52 AM, said:

BIG QUOTE

Well ...

About the whole theory with the radicals:

Covalent bonds 'break' when you put enough energy into the molecule. This is what'd happen according to you. So, the meteor strikes thus releasing thermal energy which is taken in by the molecules on earth. My question is: Why would these radicals affect the whole ozone layer when they could just as well react with one and other to lower their energy level (substances all try to go to their lowest energetic form). It doesn't seem like the ozone layer would be depleted that significantly since the radicals only affect a fairly local area (radicals never get very far without being bonded).

About the heating/cooling thing ... Doesn't the removal of plantlife remove a vital inhibitory buffer of the greenhouse effect? I don't expect trees 'n stuff to survive a meteor crash.

- Sai'ke

To put it simply, your ideas of radicals are misplaced.

Are you trying to tell me that when the meteor/comet enters the atmosphere that it wouldn't break up at all, and would be totally intact all the way to impact? For your statement about the "earth" being the site of the free radicals you'd have to take out the comets/meteors journey through the atmosphere totally.Free radicals can be created in a multitude of ways. Free radicals as you probably know are created when electrons are ripped from a seemingly stable atom. This can occur because of intense conditions (heat, pressure etc), a highly reactive compound/element coming into contact with a seemingly stable atom, by a stable atom meeting another free radical, or finally by an attack by a highly ionising form of radiation. Free radicals attack any nearby molecule no matter what it may be as you should know considering you seem to have at least a BASIC understanding of Chemistry. When a radical reacts with a molecule, it stabilises the original radical and creates another, it is a chain reaction until two radicals collide. Due to the particle collision theory (saying that the more prevailent the atom the higher the percentage chance of a collision with that particular atom), the chances that the ozone will be depleated by these radicals is incredibly high considering Ozone will be the most prevailent atom up there! Of course some will be neutralised by colliding with each other.

One thing that you forget also is that free radicals are created all the time by certain gasses in the atmosphere being atomised by UV radiation. The impact of the meteor will throw a great number of these into the air, and of course will increase the chances of the atomisation of the gasses by UV. So of course even if the original entry of the meteor doesn't create enough radicals to cause a great deal of damage then the gasses released into the air will of course create more and so despite your protestation, ozone depleation will occur. I know you're going to turn round and say "If this happens all the time how do we still have an ozone layer at all?". The answer to this is simple. In an "ideal" world, only oxygen and carbon dioxide would be present in any great amount up there. As such, there is a "cycle" whereby ozone is recycled by attacks from oxygen atoms.

When you speak about activation enthalpies, in this case the statement doesn't have any relevance as the friction from the entry of the meteor would produce enough heat to break all but the strongest bonds! Also, just to go back to your point about particle collision. Atoms are not intelligent, they do not seek out their ideal "partner" to collide with to bring them to their lowest energy level whereby the electron shells are filled to the correct level. With radicals, ANY molecule can stabilise it, as such a collision with any nearby atom is enough. Free radicals do not have to overcome the issue of "activation enthalpy" in the same way as a normal reaction either.

As for your comments about the carbon cycle etc, you're correct to an extent, however, what you are forgetting is that the initial impact of the meteor throws dust into the sky, and it has been calculated that even a relatively small meteor will create enough dust to black out the sky for a reasonable amount of time. Larger meteors however create enough dust to black out the sky for many months. Seeing as no heat would be reaching the earth, the temperature will indeed fall.

The greenhouse effect as I said before would only be noticable with a large scale impact. For some reason people seem to conclude that the initial impact of the meteor wipes every living thing off the face of the earth. Any educated person should realise that it is the after effects that cause the problems! With a small meteor the sky will only be blackened for a little while, and so after a few days, photosynthesis will resume as normal. One thing you're wrong about though, the largest store of carbon dioxide in the world is actually the oceans. Another thing you forget is that plants respire at night, and so the process is "give and take" as far as photosynthesis goes. The main reason plants help to prevent global warming is because they act as a carbon store.

Sorry to go on an insanely long rant here!



Reference materials just in case you wish to read where I have got my information from:

Chemical Principles by Peter Atkins and Loretta Jones
Advanced Chemistry for you by Lawrie Ryan
Biological Science 1 & 2 by D.J Taylor, N.P.O Green and G.W Stout.
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#29 User is offline   Sai'ke 

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Posted 25 December 2003 - 02:25 AM

I didn't really look into what would happen enough I guess. I wrote up that post in between things I had to do and didn't really have enough time to look at actual data in terms of how much dust comes up, how long the sky'd be black etc ...

I stand corrected. I'll remember to look up some actual facts next time :laugh:

As for my chemistry ... So far I've only had like three chemistry courses since I'm not doing Chemistry as a major but Biomedical Science. One was Organic Chemistry which was mainly about quantum stuff, Nucleophilic Substitution, Elimination, Stabilisation, NMR Spectograph and stuff like that. And the other which revolves around explaining certain macroproperties of materials. And of course Basic Chemistry which is like the basic stuff, the building blocks to start with, entropy, enthalpy, stabilisation, collision theory and all that stuff ...

- Sai'ke

This post has been edited by Sai'ke: 25 December 2003 - 02:28 AM

Everything is a potato to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it into fries.
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#30 User is offline   Svartmetall 

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Posted 25 December 2003 - 10:27 AM

Not a problem! It provided me with something to do after work yesterday so I thank you for that!

I'd have been highly bored otherwise, Christmas eve is always a bit slow, at least today is Christmas and I have PLENTY to do!
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